This graph shows how closely carbon dioxide, the most important greenhouse gas, has related to temperature over the last 420,000 years. The correlation extends even further to 800,000 years before the present.

Carbon dioxide is the red line and the blue line, temperature.

As one increased, the other increased, as one decreased, the other decreased – so they closely relate.

This information was found from tiny bubbles of air in ice in drilled ice cores at Vostok in Antarctica.

Carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere rose and fell between 180 ppm and 300 ppm over the last 800,000 years. (180 parts of carbon dioxide to a million parts of air).

And this 120 ppm range correlated with a 12°C change in temperature in the Antarctic –

So about a 1°C change in Antarctica’s temperature for every 10 ppm change in carbon dioxide. (CO2)

When temperature fell by 12°C in Antarctica and the level of CO2 was low, it was an ice age with large ice sheets covering the Earth.

When temperature rose by 12°C and the level of CO2 was higher, it was a warmer period as exists today.

However human activities have significantly increased the level of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere: By burning oil, coal and gas to supply the world’s energy and also through deforestation.

And as carbon dioxide levels have increased, so too have temperatures.

This is because more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps more of the sun’s heat just like a greenhouse, causing temperatures to rise.

Human activities have increased the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere from 280 ppm, before the industrial era, to 416 ppm today. (At April 7th 2021) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

You can see how high CO2 has risen on the graph – up to 416 ppm

It’s the highest level in 800,000 years. And it’s rising year by year!

Increasing carbon dioxide from 280 ppm to 416 ppm today means it’s increased by almost 50% by 136 ppm

Historically the graph shows a 10 ppm change in carbon dioxide correlated with about a 1°C change in temperature in Antarctica.

Hence the 136 ppm increase humans have caused today should raise Antarctic temperatures many centigrade in the years to come.

This 136 ppm increase in carbon dioxide has occurred mostly in the last 60 years and in recent decades the rate has been accelerating ……

At the very time it needs to decrease.

Historical changes took thousands of years to occur – Yet humans have increased CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere by almost 50% in just a few decades.

This means, as well as the changes we are already witnessing, we can also expect ‘surprises‘.

By 2100 the amount of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere could rise to almost 1000 ppm, if high emissions continue this century.

A rise in CO2 to 1000 ppm would be 700 ppm more than its ever been in the last 800,000 years – the Vostok graph has been extended to show this.

See how high CO2 goes on the graph!

A 700 ppm increase in carbon dioxide would be 70 times the 10 ppm increase, which historically correlated with a 1°C rise in temperature in Antarctica!

Scientists affirm it is not possible to just multiply 70 x 1°C, however what is clear is that we are playing with fire.

If we take urgent action there is still a chance to keep the long term level to 420 ppm.

But we are running out of time:

Earth’s temperature is rising ….