Temperatures are rising and heatwaves increasing
A warming world is increasing the frequency, duration and severity of heatwaves.
New temperature records are being set in many regions year by year
In 2019 many European countries saw temperatures rise to record levels:
The UK set a new record of 38.7°C
Germany a new record of 42.6°C
And France reached a staggering 46°C !
That’s 115°F !!
Higher temperatures cause heat-related fatalities.
The Indian heatwave of 2015, with temperatures of up to 48°C, caused 2,500 deaths.
The Russian heatwave of 2010, with temperatures of up to 44°C, caused 56,000 deaths.
The European heatwave of 2003, with temperatures of up to 47.4°C, caused 70,000 deaths.
How hot could it get ?
In 2016 temperatures rose to 51°C in India and in Iraq to almost 54°C. That’s almost 130°F !
Kuwait also registered a shocking 54°C the same year.
In 2017 Iran recorded 53.7°C and Pakistan 54°C !
By 2065
By 2100
By 2200
Figure 12.11 from Collins, M., R. Knutti, J. Arblaster, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Fichefet, P. Friedlingstein, X. Gao, W.J. Gutowski, T. Johns, G. Krinner, M. Shongwe, C. Tebaldi, A.J. Weaver and M. Wehner, 2013: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/)
These globes show how much average temperatures across different regions of the Earth are expected to rise – by 2065, by 2100 and by 2200 depending on when global emissions of carbon dioxide start to decrease.
The top layer of globes running horizontally is RCP 2.6, which shows how temperatures are likely to rise if global carbon dioxide emissions started decreasing right now in 2020 and reached zero by 2100.
Clearly this scenario is not happening for now – global emissions were still rising up until the COVID crisis.
RCP 4.5, the second horizontal layer of globes, is based on global carbon dioxide emissions decreasing from 2045 and shows how regions of the world are likely to warm in this scenario.
RCP 6.0, the third layer of globes running horizontally, is based on emissions peaking around 2080 and then decreasing.
RCP 8.5, the bottom layer of globes running horizontally, shows the projected temperature increases across the world if global emissions continue to rise throughout this century.
The increased temperatures shown are based on increases above the 1986-2005’s temperature average.
You need to add another 0.6°C to these temperature increases shown to work out the total temperature increase since before the industrial era.
And the thing to remember is that these projected temperature increases are average expected increases –
That means, in some regions at some times, temperatures could rise much higher than these averages!
By 2100, with the middle scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 6.0, parts of North America, Africa, Russia and Asia are up to 4-5°C hotter than their pre-industrial temperatures!
And parts of the Arctic up to 8°C hotter than before the industrial era !!
By 2200, under these middle scenarios it is truly catastrophic – parts of northern and southern Africa are up to 6°C hotter, parts of North America and Russia up to 8°C hotter, the edge of Antarctica up to 10°C hotter !!!
The Arctic is totally disastrous – parts of the region are up to 14°C hotter by 2200 relative to their pre-industrial temperature. And that’s under the ‘middle’ scenario!
It must also be remembered that last century vast areas in the Arctic were already 5°C hotter or about 6 TIMES the global average temperature increase at that time of about 0.8°C –
So if the world warms by an average of 4°C by 2100, some parts of the Arctic could potentially be 24°C hotter by the end of this century and by 2200 much hotter still …
The ice will all just melt….
And don’t forget these projected temperatures do not include temperature spikes on individual days, which could and would take temperatures higher still …..
India, Iraq, Pakistan and Kuwait have already seen temperatures hit 51° to 54°C yet with the middle scenarios, by 2100, temperatures in some parts of these regions could rise by up to almost 6°C above pre-industrial temperatures – and that’s an average increase.
Here’s footage of what it was like in 2015 in Karachi, Pakistan, when temperatures rose to 45°C – hundreds of people died :
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/jul/14/pakistan-heatwave-karachi-bodies-video
Under RCP 8.5, the scenario where emissions keep rising globally this century, we essentially bake ourselves to oblivion –
By 2100 many regions are up to 8°C hotter and parts of the Arctic up to 13°C+ hotter.
By 2200, vast areas of the world are up to 12°C hotter with the Arctic effectively off the scale by then ….
On hotter days, in regions such as India and Pakistan the temperatures could be well into the mid to late 60°C’s based on current temperature spikes !! That’s over 150°F !!
We will essentially heat ourselves …to death!
Additionally there could be natural ‘surprises’ as the Earth responds to such rapid temperature increases that could change these scenarios and make them even worse .
And what we need to keep in mind is that once we have turned the world’s thermostat up –
We will not be able to turn it back down !
Many of the changes that occur will be irreversible for hundreds if not thousands of years.
This is why each and everyone of us have to make the change NOW to green energy as the most important thing we can personally do to preserve our world.